Jamaica could now have between about 3000, and 100,000 cases of Covid19, instead of reported 223 cases (according to medical studies…)
This is good reason why Artificial Intelligence testing methods (or other methods) are reasonably required to increase testing dramatically.
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So let’s do some projections based on data that I came across in past months/weeks.
1) Only 6% of actual covid19 infections have been detected by countries worldwide:
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-04-covid-average-actual-infections-worldwide.html
So, at 6% being reported, while Jamaica is reportedly at 223 cases, this gives us:
(6/100) * X = 223
X = (223*50)/3
X = 3716
*So conservative estimate may be about 3700 cases of covid19 in Jamaica based on that study*
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2) A US county recorded 1,000 COVID-19 cases earlier this month, but blood tests suggest that more than 50,000 people there have been infected.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01095-0
So, at about 50x reported cases of 223, Jamaica could have *11,150* cases instead of 223.
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3) *So covid19 WikiPedia timeline has USA at only 66 confirmed cases on Feb 28, but about 100k cases on March 27. So in about 27 days, we saw about 100k case jump in USA.
b) Jamaica had 55 reported cases on April 4, 2020 according to Moh. Going by what has happened in Usa, *Jamaica could also be at about 100k cases*.
There are factors like population size, varying quarantine measures between countries, etc that could also produce different case count jumps.
Usa timeline sources:
Perhaps relevant: Population density comparison Jamaica/USA.
Note: This is an early estimation of actual Covid19/Jamaica case count.
